The sudden plunge is also spurring Trade floor rumors that China is planning to scrap its 2020 ethanol mandate because of the low stocks. The implication being that China won't be in the market for U.S. ethanol unless the Trump administration works out a trade deal and ends its trade war with China. (Source: RFD TV, 18 Sept., 2019)
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China produced 2.8 million tonnes of ethanol in 2017. Current capacity is estimated at approximately 3.38 million tonnes, including recently approved plants still under construction.
Of those, corn-based ethanol capacity is around 1.45 million tpy, followed by cassava, wheat, sorghum and rice. (Source: China National Renewable Energy Centre, Reuters, 10 Dec., 2018) Contact: China National Renewable Energy Centre, Dou Kejun, Researcher, www.cnrec.org.cn/english
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Tianjin is expected to use 260,000 tpy of fuel ethanol produced from approximately 780,000 tpy of corn. China is currently sitting on huge stocks of corn estimated to be at about 200 million tonnes, following a now discontinued government stockpiling scheme to support farmers. Although China currently produces under 2.5 million tpy of ethanol the new policy could increase demand to 15 million tpy by 2020, according to a Reuters estimate.
As previously reported, in 2017, China announced plans to roll out E-10 ethanol blended fuel on a national scale by 2020.
(Source: Various Media, Reuters, 11 June, 2018)
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China's domestic ethanol production stands at about 2.5 million tpy.
(Source: Khmer Times, Various Others, Reuters, 3 April, 2018)
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Chinese ethanol tariff would bring the total tariff on US ethanol imports to 45 pct, following a 30 pct tariff imposed by China in January 2017. The hike could virtually end US biofuel exports to China which is trying to increase its domestic ethanol production as it readies itself for a national policy requiring petrol to comprise 10 pct ethanol (E10) starting in 2020 -- a move aimed at assisting its wider efforts to reduce air pollution and GHG emissions.
, China produced more than 1 billion gallons of ethanol in 2016, according to USDA data.
(Source: Renewable News, NewsBase, Various Others, 29 Mar., 2018)
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Chinese companies have ordered more than 600,000 tons of ethanol from the US for blending into gasoline in the first half of the year, according to the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, which oversees the fuel ethanol industry. China is expanding its ethanol mandate nationwide by 2020.
(Source: China Alcoholic Drinks Association, Bloomberg, 26 Mar., 2018)
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To help make use of the excess stock, China last year announced a plan for nationwide use of bioethanol gasoline by 2020.
Outlining the work priorities for 2018, the SAG said it will accelerate the use of grain stockpiles and reform grain storage mechanisms to make them more market-oriented, according to the State Administration of Grain. (Source: Chinese State Administration of Grain, Xinhua, 17 Feb., 2018) Contact: Chinese State Administration of Grain, www.chinagrain.gov.cn/english/index.html
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China the world's third-largest bioethanol producer behind the U.S. and Brazil, as well as the world's largest automobile market, uses nearly 2.6 million tpy of ethanol but aims to raise production to 4 million tpy by 2020. The government aims to build an advanced liquid biofuel system and put into operation a demonstration facility that will be able to produce 50,000 tons of ethanol derived from cellulose a year by 2020.
banned the use of grain for ethanol production in 2007 to ensure sufficient food supplies, and biofuel manufacturers have since turned to sweet potatoes, sorghum and straw instead.
The country later lifted the ban in a number of provinces
(Source: Xinhua, Shanghai Daily, Others, 14 Sept., 2017)
Contact: China National Development and Reform Commission, en.ndrc.gov.cn
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The bureau forecast China's 2017 fuel ethanol production at a record 3,550m litres, up 12.6 pct year on year, citing "strong demand, plentiful feedstocks, and continued government support".
The outlook follows a series of increases to Chinese duties on US imported ethanol, and an ongoing drive to increase domestic ethanol use.
China's latest five year plant targets ethanol production, primarily from corn, at 6,335 million liters by 2020.
In 2016 almost all Chinese ethanol imports came from the US.
(Source: USDA, Agrimoney.com, 14 Feb., 2017) Contact: USDA, www.usda.gov
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Denatured ethanol from the US, South Korea and South Africa accounts for the vast majority of China's ethanol imports.
(Source: Hellenic News, Platts, Others, 25 Jan., 2017)
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Based on China not listing a new ethanol import tariff for 2017, the tariff is expected to rise from 5 to 30 pct, effectively shutting imports out of the market based on current prices, according to Reuters.
Chinese ethanol imports during the first 11 months of 2016 hit 765,316 cubic metres, up 51 percent on the prior year, while 2015 imports of 686,904 cubic metres jumped 2,741 pct year on year, according to the Reuters report.
(Source: US AgNet, Reuters, Others, 18 Jan., 2017)
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